The monthly survey of manufacturers in New York State conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Note: Survey responses were collected between April 2 and April 9.
Business activity continued to decline in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index rose seven points but remained below zero at -14.3. New orders and shipments both declined significantly, and unfilled orders continued to shrink. Delivery times shortened, and inventories edged higher. Labor market conditions remained weak, with employment and hours worked moving lower. The pace of input price increases picked up somewhat, while the pace of selling price increases held steady. Though firms expect conditions to improve over the next six months, optimism remained subdued.
Manufacturing activity continued to contract in New York State, according to the April survey. The general business conditions index rose seven points but remained well below zero at -14.3. The new orders index was little changed at -16.2, and the shipments index fell eight points to -14.4, pointing to an ongoing decline in both orders and shipments. The unfilled orders index held steady at -10.1, a sign that unfilled orders continued to fall. The inventories index moved up sixteen points to 3.4, indicating that inventories edged higher for the first time in several months, and the delivery times index fell to -7.9, suggesting that delivery times shortened.
The index for number of employees came in at -5.1, and the average workweek index was little changed at -10.6, pointing to an ongoing decline in employment levels and hours worked. The prices paid index moved up five points to 33.7, indicating that input price increases picked up slightly, and the prices received index held steady at 16.9.
Optimism about the outlook remained subdued. The index for future business conditions dipped five points to 16.7, with only 37 percent of respondents expecting conditions to improve in the next six months. The outlook for employment growth weakened noticeably. The capital spending index fell to 6.7, suggesting that capital spending plans remained soft.
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025
JAN
|
FEB
|
MAR
|
APR
|
16 report
|
15 report
|
15 report
|
15 report
|
MAY
|
JUN
|
JUL
|
AUG
|
15
|
17
|
15
|
15
|
SEP
|
OCT
|
NOV
|
DEC
|
16
|
15
|
15
|
16
|
Latest Report including charts of diffusion indexes
Participants from across the state in a variety of industries respond to a questionnaire and report the change in a variety of indicators from the previous month. Respondents also state the likely direction of these same indicators six months ahead. April 2002 is the first report, although survey data date back to July 2001.
The survey is sent on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York State, typically the president or CEO. About 100 responses are received. Most are completed by the tenth, although surveys are accepted until the fifteenth.
For demonstration only:
Sample
survey 1 page / 44 kb
Respondents come from a wide range of industries from across the New York State. No one industry dominates the respondent pool.
The survey's main index, general business conditions, is not a weighted average of other indicators—it is a distinct question posed on the survey. Each index is seasonally adjusted when stable seasonality is detected.
Revisions
Each January, all data undergo a benchmark revision
to reflect new seasonal factors.
Seasonal Adjustment
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey seasonally adjusts data based on the Census X-12 additive procedure utilizing a logistic transformation.
The "increase" and "decrease" percentage components of the diffusion indexes are each tested for seasonality separately and adjusted accordingly if such patterns exist. If no seasonality is detected, the component is left unadjusted. The "no change" component contains the residual, computed by subtracting the (adjusted) increase and decrease from 100. Seasonal factors are forecast in December for the upcoming year.
Data are adjusted using a logistic transformation. The not-seasonally adjusted series, expressed in decimal form (referred to as "p"), is transformed using the following equation:
X = log(p/(1-p))
The seasonal factor is then subtracted from X:
adjX = X - seasonal factor
The result is then transformed using the following equation:
SA Series = exponential(adjX)/(1+exponential(adjX))
To view the Seasonal Factors data, please click on the “Data & Charts” tab.
Contacts
Tech help: nyrsf.webteam@ny.frb.org
Questions about survey/data: richard.deitz@ny.frb.org or (716) 849-5025